Year 2011 has been most unusual, and has sped by at a faster clip than ever before. But surely that cannot happen. The physical laws that govern the universe have not changed despite our best attempts at unravelling the God particle. Why then does it seem so?
Part of the reason has been that events over the last year have been quite dramatic, and in some cases will be viewed as historical watersheds. Things that were not thought likely have happened, much to everyone’s surprise.
Take a look: at the start of the year would you have predicted the Jasmine revolution, and that long-established tyrants of the Arab world would be swept away in the wake of the Arab Spring? What the western powers had tried for years in Libya happened within a few short months when the people finally spoke up. So also in other parts of the Arab world, - Egypt, Yemen, Algeria, Morocco, etc - some more impactful than others. While Syria continues to bleed with the Assad family refusing to let go, all other Arab nations have decided to tweak their system to allow the voice of the people to be heard in some manner or form. Though the Bahraini rulers held on to their monarchy (with Saudi assistance), the fragrance of the Jasmine has changed Arab society forever, with even the Saudi Kingdom now agreeing to representation for women in municipal elections in 2015, amongst other path-breaking steps.
No transition is ever smooth, witness the continuing violence in Egypt, but it can clearly be said that the Arab world has changed like never before. The departure of the US troops from Iraq has perhaps closed a sorry chapter for American military, but has opened a new era for the Middle East, the contours of which is still hazy.
What about the rest of the world? I am struck by the comment of Bernie Ecclestone that “Europe is finished. It will be a good place for tourism but little else. Europe is a thing of the past.” While his comment was made with the context of F1 racing, it may well be extended to other economic and political matters as well. The demise of the Eurozone has been long forecast and the dire predictions may well come true, if one believes the experts. Currently, the prolonged economic agony playing out is just another version of the Chinese ‘death by a thousand cuts’ and the Greek tragedy has morphed into a wailing Italian opera. With the Germans and the French still hesitant to go the whole hog in bailing anyone out, and the vacillating British still uncommitted, the Olympics in the UK in 2012 may well mark the last hurrah of European dominance for quite a while.
What of the United States? With less than a year to go for the Presidential elections, Obama’s only hope for a second term seems to be a bloody fratricidal blood bath by the Republicans in the run up to the main event. Despite the victories in the geopolitical arena (including the elimination of Osama and the end of the Qaddafi regime), and halting the decline of the economy, Obama has lost his charm with ‘Occupy Wall Street’ the latest chant by the faceless protestors. ‘Yes, we can’ has been reduced to ‘Perhaps, we should’, as the partisan nature of US electoral battles has exhausted the President’s goodwill with people who no longer view him as being truly decisive.
China, well, has its own set of issues to contend with. With things being rather quiet on the Taiwanese front, and the Tibetan issue not as ugly as in earlier years (with the Dalai Lama preparing to move off the centre stage politically) China has had to intend with its own domestic demons. With Labour strikes making the news far more rapidly than ever before, riots and civil unrest in some provinces (still very minor and infrequent, though) erupting like acne off and on, what has caused concern is economic disruptions of different kinds: train accidents, etc. Will the economic miracle be sustained and will the underlying social strife ever become prominent, is difficult to say given the inscrutable nature of Chinese society and polity. But somehow this year the rock strong Chinese visage has developed visible cracks.
India has had a turbulent year too. The global economic infection has not hurt it as much as the rising inflation rates in the country. What got the most headlines, though, was the anti- corruption agitation that hit the streets in all parts of the nation. The power of the common man, protesting on the streets, was strong enough to impact the legislature too, enough in fact for the nation’s parliament to be compelled to have special additional sessions during the Christmas weekend to debate a new law. Sadly, in the midst of all this growth rates have fallen, enough to make the knowledgeable worried about the future growth trajectory but not enough to worry the rest of the global markets who still consider India to be a riding the growth tiger.
Africa emerged with a mixed report card overall. The birth of the new nation, Republic of South Sudan, after years of strife was part of the good news, but the bad news was that economics still has not received the attention it deserves. The predictions are getting louder that Africa will be the next boom destination, but skeptics will tell you that speculative bets do not an economy make. It is ultimately incumbent on the governments to pay close attention to the real levers of growth. It was also striking to note that the fragrance of the jasmine revolution did not seem to head south from the north African borders of Tunisia and thereby much of Africa remains in the hands of established regents who put their needs ahead of their countrymen.
The Russian growth story, it appears, is about to see a new twist. Putin’s plans to violate the spirit of the constitution, with a show of adhering to the rule of the law by returning to the presidential palace with a detour though the Prime Minister’s office, seems to be running into people power. The main show has yet to begin but it promises to be a stormy 2012 run up to the election.
Japan was severely tested by nature yet again. While the Japanese politicians played musical chairs true to their nature for the Premier’s chair, the Japanese people came through yet again with shining examples of their resilience in adversity. Indeed, there is much to earn for other nations from them.
TIME may choose the faceless Protestor as the iconic image of the year but our wonderful world survived it all!
What’s next in store for 2012? Only a brave or a foolish man will place bets. And, I am a bit of both. So, here’s my take: despite all the calamitous predictions, we will prevail. We are light years away from Kepler - 22b, the new planet discovered at the edge of our Universe, but truth be told, in this chaotic world that we call home, the roller coaster existence will continue, with new tyrants taking over, new voices in the street, new discoveries exciting us and new wonks appearing on the scene. But, yes, there is one matter on which there is large consensus: a new Steve Jobs will not appear for quite a while. Such extraordinary stars are truly rare in our world!
