According to the Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Global Economic Outlook 4th quarter report, the speed and size of the various governmental rescue efforts will result in a recovery in the nearest future.
Their prediction is that, although developed country economies will continue their serious downturns, the massive infusion of government money should restore activity to the credit markets and set the stage for recovery.Â
It would be recalled that governments of some developed economies have responded by embarking on measures that will save their banks and financial institutions from crumbling, while reducing the loss of investor funds.
The intervention in the developed world involves higher amounts of funding. The developing countries, on the other hand, said to be only indirectly affected by the crisis, are also following suit with similar policies, although in smaller amounts.
Thus, the governments of major economies have made efforts to coordinate their policy responses to the crisis, and have introduced unprecedented and strong market stabilisation measures.
In the United States, a US$700 billion rescue package has been drawn in a bid to salvage its financial institutions. While presenting the bill to the country’s Congress for approval, President George Bush had noted the severity of the situation, cautioning that the current crisis could “wipe out banks, empty retirement nest-eggs, send home-values into a free-fall and create millions of new jobless.â€
In the United Kingdom, state intervention in recent days has been on an unprecedented scale, with a £500bn bail-out of the UK financial sector and plans to partly nationalise US banks and coordinated global interest rate cuts.Â
Together, Germany, France and the United Kingdom announced more than 163 billion euros ($222 billion) of new bank liquidity and 700 billion euros (nearly $1 trillion) in interbank loan guarantees, all geared towards cutting the Europe-wide cost of the subprime which has been estimated at $323.3 billion in asset write-downs.Â
The Korean government has also intervened in its financial market by providing guarantees to Korean banks’ external debt, among other measures.Â
Korean total guarantees were capped at USD 100 billion to cover Domestic banks’ external debt, reaching maturity until the end of June, 2009, which is estimated to be around USD 80 billion.
Other measures by the government and the Bank of Korea include providing additional dollar liquidity amounting to USD 30 billion to the banking sector by utilising foreign exchange reserves, purchasing of RPs, buying government bonds and early redemption of monetary stabilisation bonds.Â
In Nigeria, debates have ensued as to the need for a bail-out as government earlier announced a N400 billion measure to fuel liquidity in the system, with controversies surrounding the need for a bailout of banks.
This is despite reports on the calls by banks’ chief executives on the Federal Government to directly bail out these banks.
Following historical precedents of financial crises in Norway, Finland, Sweden, and Japan in the 1990s, as well as the United States during the savings and loan crisis, Deloitte posits a positive outlook from the financial crisis. It suggests that bank recapitalisation can be beneficial to economies, and that the financial burden on taxpayers is not necessarily onerous. It notes that economic downturns triggered by financial crises tend to be deeper and longer than those that start for other reasons. Â
“Unlike some past financial crises, this one resulted in a rapid and massive governmental response on both sides of the Atlantic,†said Ira Kalish, director of Global Economics, Deloitte Research. “Thus, there are reasons we can be cautiously optimistic about the medium-term outlook for the global economy.â€
The report offers a long-term view, suggesting impacts in multiple business sectors. “The credit crunch is part of a long-term restructuring of the economy,†said Kalish. “The result will see a shift in the U.S. economy away from a consumer-driven import base to an export-based economy. Asia on the other hand, will develop as more consumer-based economies. This creates opportunities and challenges for business across industry sectors.â€
“In the United States, recapitalisation of banks will help to revive credit market activity,†continued Kalish. “Eurozone banking consolidation will have a positive long-term impact on European capital market efficiency. Finally, the emerging economies of Russia, India, and China, while slowing, will remain important drivers of global growth, to which experts have said that Nigeria has a chance to position itself among these economies with its Vision 2020 drive.





