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Ordinarily, when they say an economy is safe, it means doing business in such an economy will be easy. Unfortunately, it is not always true – a country’s economy is not necessarily safe but relatively less immune to global financial crisis. 
Bismack Rewane, managing director of Financial Derivatives says, “that the country’s economy is least vulnerable does not mean that it is immune or that the market or business environment is positive.”
Ironically, while Merrill Lynch is declaring that Nigeria’s economy is the least vulnerable in the world (safest?), a Business Monitor report is saying that Nigeria slipped four places in its already bad rating on the ease of doing business.
Nigeria occupied the 114th position out of 181 countries on the World Bank report on the ease of doing business for 2008, but the current report for 2009 indicates that Nigeria now occupies the 118th position
The question is, how do we reconcile a situation where an economy is very ‘safe’, yet have hitches or impediments to doing business.
Factors listed as qualifying Nigeria as the safest economy in the world include exports, as percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), private credit as percentage of GDP, ratio of loans to deposit in percentage, ratio of bank capital to asset, among a few others.
On the other hand, Nigeria ‘s ranking slipped most in ‘starting a business’, ‘getting credit’ (one of the reasons it also became world safest economy) and ‘protecting investors components’. It however gained most in ‘dealing with construction permits’, moving from 161st to a still-low 151st. 
And so from the perspective of doing business in Nigeria, there is little improvement. Some even argue that doing business in Nigeria is a nightmare.
All these agree with the concept of Rewane on what it means to be least vulnerable in the face of the raging global crisis.
Economic analysts say one of the things going for the country at the moment is that there is positive demand for Nigeria ‘s oil and it is at the same time elastic, thus a kind of safe guide against the economy in spite of falling prices.
If not, he said, the Merrill Lynch report is not an endorsement of any sort, as the economy could be strong, least vulnerable, but still does not translate to being business friendly or good.  
As for Wale Abe, chief executive officer of the Money Market Association of Nigeria (MMAN), the report by Merrill Lynch will help to attract investment.  
It is the economic crisis around the world making the news daily that made financial experts like Merrill Lynch to compile a report on global economics, following several data requests from clients of the investment bank for key risk indicators for all major economies including Europe , the Middle East and Africa (EMEA).
The risk ranking was based on seven indicators which include current account financing gap, foreign exchange reserves/short-term external debt ratio, private credit-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio, and private credit growth, loans to deposits and banks capital-to-assets ratio.
The report showed that Nigeria is the least vulnerable economy in the world. According to the statistics, Nigeria, with a population of 141.41million, was able to record a 7.3 per cent growth in GDP, with its Consumer Price Index hovering at 11.5 per cent, its current account balance, fiscal balance and public debt at 6 per cent, 6.3 and 10.4 percentage respectively.
To determine its external vulnerability, Nigeria ‘s external debt position was put at 12.9 per cent of the GDP, while external debt/exports ratio was put at 9 per cent. Her forex reserves totalled $60.8billion.The percentage of Nigeria ‘s total external debt in relation to the GDP was put at two per cent, total foreign claims is $15.3billion while international claims stood at $13.1billion.
The report stated that the percentage of current account balance plus net foreign direct investment of the Nigerian GDP was 34, forex reserves/short-term external debt totaled 41, while percentage of export of the GDP was 38 points. The percentage of private credit of GDP was 43, while the percentage of bank capital to assets, according to Merrill Lynch was 41.
The world’s 10 least vulnerable economies are Nigeria, Mexico, Philippines, Colombia, Egypt, Oman, Indonesia, Peru, China and Russia. While the world’s 10 high-risk economies are Australia, Switzerland, Korea, Romania, Hungary, Sweden, Bulgaria, Euro area, The United Kingdom and the United States of America.
The 10 most vulnerable countries, which are mostly European countries, were said to have exhibited worse balance of payments positions, stretched external debt service ratios and over leveraged financial systems.
Merrill Lynch states “Many of the economies that top our risk ranking have been identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) as those that have experienced capital flow bonanzas in the past five years and hence exhibit higher likelihood of economic crisis.”
It was noted that the key indicators to the safety of investment in Nigeria is the freedom to invest in any part of the country without government’s intervention. The director-general of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), Sam Ohuanbuwa says that, “in Nigeria , people can invest anywhere without hindrance. Other important considerations are the sheer size of the Nigerian market and underlying macro-economic issues.”
But in spite of these pluses, Business Monitor International (BMI) says Nigeria fares badly in other indicators that could sway business and investment decisions. The Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance ranked Nigeria 39th out of 48 countries.
BMI added that from a business environment perspective, the notable results are Nigeria ‘s unsurprisingly low ranking of 39th for safety and security (but interestingly above that of South Africa at 42) and 30th place for rule of law, transparency and corruption.
Perhaps, all Nigeria has going for it are mere opportunities and possibilities, just potentials. The only area the country was adjudged better was its ranking at 23rd, in the sustainable economic opportunity component.
Though the authorities at the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) have lifted the lid slammed on share price movement in the downward direction, the report said, the move has weakened investors’ confidence such that it would take time for their confidence interval to improve again.
Other happenings that may have weakened investors’ confidence, it added include the reportedly sale of 49 percent stake in Virgin Nigeria by Virgin founder, Richard Branson due to a dispute with the Nigerian government.
Branson claims Virgin agreed to invest in Nigeria on several conditions, including the right to operate all flights out of the terminal.
But it would be recalled that the authorities enforced an order for virgin to transfer its domestic flights to a newly built facility, cancelling all Virgin Nigeria’s domestic flights for several days.
The dispute was due to go to court on October 6, and Branson is unhappy the ban was enforced beforehand, stating “if Virgin Nigeria can be treated in this way, can any company in the world seriously consider investing in Nigeria in the future?”