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Home National National Remittances reduce forex demand

Remittances reduce forex demand

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…As naira appreciates

Market sentiments may have shifted in favour of the nation’s currency as it is experiencing appreciation on the back of influx of foreign exchange from Nigerians in Diaspora. The development, which has led to naira appreciation below CBN’s exchange rate target of N150/$, has equally forced CBN to reduce its supply at the twice weekly Wholesale Dutch Auction System (WDAS) to $40 million as against $300 million supplied in the past. For instance, signs of declining demand started when the apex bank offered $300 million as at November 11, 2009, but ended up selling $218 million. As at November 23, the central bank offered $150 million but only $42.33 million was sold. Last week Wednesday and this Monday it thus ended up offering only $40 million. Experts say, apart from last year when the global financial crisis was biting harder, it was a yearly trend to see Diaspora Nigerians remit so much money home for various projects that the demand for forex is usually reduced. Last year, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) found it difficult supporting the strength of the naira because of the sharp fall in crude oil prices. Wale Abe, chief executive officer of the Financial Dealers Market Association (FMDA) of Nigeria told BusinessDay that that has always been the tradition until last year when the financial crisis forced a reversal of the trend. The trend was reversed last year because not even Diaspora Nigerians were spared the financial pains that were acute during the corresponding period of 2008. The result is that little or no foreign exchange was remitted, last year. Another line of argument put forward by Abe is that with the year close to an end, and the proposed budget sent to the National Assembly, many business people naturally assume the ‘wait and see’ attitude, thus bringing a lull in business activities until the first quarter of the next year. The implication is that there will be little demand for foreign exchange by business people who have gone into their waiting shells to wait for the direction the government will chart with the budget. The World Bank has, however, said that though remittances this year were lower than the previous year globally, those to Nigeria did better than expected. World Bank’s latest data on foreign inflows indicate that overall global remittances will decline to $317 billion in 2009, however, less than its earlier forecast mainly as a result of remittances “boom“ in South Asia and strong flows to East Asia and the Pacific. Amidst global economic recession, World Bank researchers had in March further predicted that remittances will shrink more than originally anticipated to about $290 billion in 2009. However, latest estimates show that even though migrant workers have sent less money since the economic crisis broke, the recent anticipated 6.1 percent drop is smaller than the World Bank’s July prediction of 7.3 percent. It also disclosed that “remittances flows to sub-Saharan Africa did better than forecasted, with flows to Nigeria, Kenya and Uganda showing higher growth or smaller declines than expected”.

 

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