Stakeholders in the oil and gas sector have said the greatest threat to realising the objectives of the 2018 budget are security of personnel and reduction in vandalisation of production and export infrastructure.
The other factor that could threaten the budget according to them is the oversupply of the global oil market and lack of compliance to production cuts by OPEC members.
They however described the Federal Government daily projection of 2.3 million barrels per day in 2018 budget as over optimistic, but agreed that the $45 per barrel price benchmark was fair enough given the fact that there are threats of possible oversupply in the global market.
According to their projections, the price of crude oil would most likely remain within the range of $50 and $55 per barrel for the better part of 2018.
Eddy Wikina, managing director of Treasure Energy Resources and former External Relations Manger of Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production (SNEPCO) told BusinessDay that the $45 is good for the budget but doubt if the country can achieve the 2.3 million daily production.
According to him , the country must always take cognisance of the threats of the Niger Delta militants and development in other parts of the world, especially the penchant for OPEC members not comply with supply regulation.
“If there is global over supply in the market where would the motivation to produce would 2.3 million barrels come from”, he said. He urged the Federal Government to give incentives that would allow investors to build refineries and industries that would turn the oil into various petroleum products that would be useful in African Markets.
In his own reaction, Biodun Adesanya , President of National Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE) said the greatest threat to realising the objectives of the budget is security of personnel and reduction in vandlisation of production and export infrastructure.
He said that quick passage of the budget by the national assembly is important otherwise the budget is feasible.
John Uwajumogu, partner, Transaction Advisory Service, Ernest and Young, said the main challenge the government is going to have that would confront the implementation of the budget would be social economic issues. He urged the government to engaged the communities in oil producing areas as quickly as possible so that they are carried along on the issues of development and oil production.
He said the worse that can happened to the country would be for her to experience low oil output and low price again, as did this year,and this would not be good enough for the economy.
The government he said can control the production by taking certain actions that would guaranty peace in the Niger Delta . “I expect the government to dialogue with communities and other stakeholders”.
A coalition of militant groups from the nine states of the Niger Delta have threatened to resumed attacks on oil installations because of their loss of confidence in the leadership of the Pan Niger Delta Elders Forum (PANDEF)
The group warned that they would be forced to resume hostilities against oil installations if the Federal Government enters into any discussion or agreement with PANDEF.
PANDEF, led by Chief Edwin Clark, has been leading the process of dialogue with the federal government, over crisis in the Niger Delta.
The coalition of militants, led by the Reformed Niger Delta Agenda (RNDA), after a crucial meeting held along the Benin River, in Delta State, presided over by its leader, Major Johnmark Ezonbi, declared that the PANDEF was structured as an opposition tool of a political party.
In a communiqué issued at the end of their meeting, they lamented the lack of development in the Niger Delta region, in spite of the huge funds that had accrued to the zone.
They advised the Federal Government to enter into fresh talks with the Pan Niger Delta People’s Congress, headed by Pere Charles, Ayemi Botu and other respected traditional rulers and stake holders in the region, including Mike Emuh, who is the national chairman of HOSTCOM and Francis Innegbeniki, representing Edo State.
“The coalition will be forced to resume hostilities in the creek in a well coordinated approach, if the Federal Government enters into any discussion with PANDEF, as the group no longer enjoys the blessings and support of militants stake holders in the region.”